Bet the Under on these four teams

Last week in Bet Smart, I pegged some teams I count on to go over their 2021 NFL regular-season win whole. Here are four I determine will are available on the south aspect of the quantity (odds through BetMGM):

Chicago Bears: (Under 7.5 (-115)

As a lot as I believe Justin Fields has a superb likelihood to make the Bears higher over the subsequent 5 seasons, I believe what this workforce has on its arms for 2021 at the sport’s key place can’t be described as something however a multitude. All three quarterbacks in all probability count on to begin, and that’s not a great way to go in. Chicago was a shocking playoff workforce final yr after ending 8-8, successful six video games by seven or fewer factors. Historically, that’s not a superb indicator of future enchancment; simply four of the previous 34 teams that achieved that feat acquired higher the subsequent season. The common decline was 2.4 wins. In addition, for those who take a look at the center portion of the Bears’ schedule, they face a block of 5 straight video games towards Green Bay, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. That is a troublesome street, and may they be lucky to win even one or two of these, they’ve 5 different spots wherein I’ve them as underdogs of three.4 factors or extra.

Miami Dolphins: Under 9.5 (-130)

I discover it attention-grabbing that after successful 10 video games in 2020 and being characterised as a franchise on the rise, these in the know in Vegas have decreased the Dolphins’ anticipated win whole by a sport. This regardless of a seventeenth sport in 2021. I’m not a giant Tua Tagovailoa fan. From what I noticed final season, he was extra anxious to get the ball out of his arms rapidly or to verify down than he was to advance it down the area. That’s not going to win constantly in the NFL. The Dolphins had been lucky in regard to turnovers, too, having loved an fringe of +0.6 per sport. Typically, teams that do this and fail to make the playoffs are inclined to regress the subsequent season. I’ll name for some additional rising pains for this franchise as I see Miami taking part in as an underdog in its first 5 video games.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
Getty Images

Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 8.5 (-125)

It’s not usually {that a} workforce will probably be projected to complete .500 by oddsmakers after successful its first 11 video games the earlier season, however that’s precisely what Pittsburgh is dealing with in 20201. A lukewarm offseason franchise endorsement of QB Ben Roethlisberger apart, didn’t it really feel for a lot of the last weeks of final season, as if it had been time for the Steelers to maneuver on? And regardless of the feel-good try to make a sport of it in the playoff loss to Cleveland, that was as one-sided a postseason sport as you’ll see. The easy reality is that the final six video games of the 2020-21 season uncovered loads of what was or is incorrect with this workforce. The Steelers not win by working the soccer and with protection. I’ve super respect for the job coach Mike Tomlin has accomplished, however is it actually attainable to win with a mode not becoming the coach? Perhaps the drafting of working again Najee Harris will carry a return to normalcy. I believe it’s telling that my energy scores present the Steelers as underdogs of at the very least six factors in three of the first seven video games. I see a continuation of 2020’s conclusion ensuing in 2021.

Seattle Seahawks: Under 9.5 (+125)

After a uncommon dwelling playoff loss final season to the Rams, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Seattle. The franchise’s relationship with QB Russell Wilson appears to have soured, and plenty of of the largest contributors in the Super Bowl years have left for different pastures since Wilson’s contract has eaten up a lot of the cap room. The Seahawks had been at their greatest when Wilson was only a spoke in the wheel. Now he’s basically the hub, as the whole offense revolves round him. Even although Seattle’s report has gotten barely higher over the previous three seasons, the playoff loss was telling and it seems as if this franchise might be able to hit the wall. Coach Pete Carroll’s workforce now qualifies for a scary angle, which finds that since 2002, solely one in every of the 13 teams that recorded improved information in three straight seasons continued that development. The common drop for the declining group was 4.2 wins, and the common report was 6.5-9.5. Even in the event that they win the seventeenth sport, that might solely make 7.5 wins on this angle. I’ve Seattle favored in simply one in every of its first six video games. An ugly begin after the playoff loss and offseason points with Wilson might spell doom.

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