IMF raises India’s growth projection to 12.5% for FY22

The newest version of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook has introduced excellent news for the Indian authorities. The IMF has raised India’s growth projection to 12.5 per cent for FY22 in its recent outlook, placing the nation on high by way of GDP growth.

The 12.5 per cent growth projection is the best not simply among the many nations that type the rising economies but in addition among the many elite group of superior economies.

Despite its optimistic growth projection for India, IMF estimates GDP to contract by 8 per cent. However, the upward growth projection for the present fiscal that began on April 1 is nice information for India. It could also be famous that IMF’s newest growth projection for India is one per cent increased than its earlier prediction of 11.5 per cent in January.

Read | IMF projects impressive 11.5% growth rate for India in 2021

The IMF has additionally revised India’s growth projection for the following fiscal beginning April 1, 2022, indicating that the nation’s long-term growth momentum can be steady. The worldwide physique has elevated India’s growth projection for FY23 from 6.8 per cent to 6.9 per cent.

Credit: World Economic Outlook, IMF

“It’s one year since Covid-19 was declared a global pandemic, a year of terrible loss of lives and livelihoods. The rising human toll worldwide and the millions of people that remain unemployed are grim markers of the extreme social and economic strain that the global community still confronts,” the IMF’s outlook acknowledged.

Credit: World Economic Outlook, IMF

“Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Adaptation to pandemic life has enabled the global economy to do well despite subdued overall mobility, leading to a stronger-than-anticipated rebound, on average, across regions. Additional fiscal support in some economies — on top of an already unprecedented fiscal response last year and continued monetary accommodation —further uplift the economic outlook,” it added.

Expressing concern over the influence of the pandemic and subsequent restrictions, the IMF stated, “Cumulative per capita income losses over 202022, compared to pre-pandemic projections, are equivalent to 20 per cent of 2019 per capita GDP in emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China), while in advanced economies the losses are expected to be relatively smaller, at 11 per cent.”

Also Read | IMF chief lauds India’s efforts in reviving economy after Covid-19, taking ‘decisive steps’

In an alarming evaluation, the outlook stated, “Already our estimates suggest last year’s severe collapse could have been about at least three times as large had it not been for the swift policy support worldwide.”

“India’s better performance has an impact on group comprising ‘emerging and developing Asia’ regional group,” it added.

“For the emerging and developing Asia regional group, projections for 2021 have been revised up by 0.6 percentage point, reflecting a stronger recovery than initially expected after lockdowns were eased in some large countries (for example, India),” IMF acknowledged.

But excessive Covid-19 caseloads in some massive nations within the first quarter of 2021 (akin to Indonesia and Malaysia) put a lid on growth prospects, it added.

IMF’s optimism comes at a time when India has turn out to be the second-biggest Covid hotspot on the planet and is clocking over one lakh optimistic circumstances in a single day through the second wave of Covid-19.

Even then, the IMF’s optimism is in sync with the month-to-month financial evaluate for March ready by the Finance Ministry and launched on April 5.

The report stated, “As the vaccination drive continuously upscales in India and guided by the learnings of India’s successful management of pandemic during its first wave, India is now well armed to combat any downside risk posed by the recent surge in Covid-19 cases. With the end of a challenging FY 2020-21, the crest of a brighter and self-reliant FY 2021-22 awaits India.”

Global Outlook

As far as the worldwide state of affairs is anxious, the outlook initiatives the worldwide financial system to develop at 6 per cent in 2021 as in opposition to a contraction of three.3 per cent in 2020 and reasonable to 4.4 per cent in 2022.

“The contraction for 2020 is 1.1 percentage points smaller than projected in the October 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reflecting the higher-than-expected growth outturns in the second half of the year for most regions after lockdowns were eased and as economies adapted to new ways of working,” the report stated.

The outlook states that it’s “now projecting a stronger recovery in 2021 and 2022 for the global economy compared to our previous forecast”.

The outlook presents daunting challenges associated to divergences within the velocity of restoration, each throughout and inside nations, and the potential for persistent financial harm from the disaster.

“Among advanced economies, the United States is expected to surpass its pre-Covid GDP level this year, while many others in the group will return to their pre-Covid levels only in 2022. Similarly, among emerging market and developing economies, China had already returned to pre-Covid GDP in 2020, whereas many others are not expected to do so until well into 2023,” the report added.

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