The aftermath of the NFL draft jogs my memory of being a child on Christmas afternoon. All the presents have been unwrapped, and I already can’t look ahead to subsequent Christmas.
Hopefully readers adopted this column’s recommendation and cashed in on Trey Lance going to San Francisco at +500 and Justin Fields going to Chicago at +1700. I used to be satisfied for weeks Lance could be the third choose. Then on the morning of Day 1 of the draft, I used to be resigned to the truth that it might be Mac Jones, solely to see a large (and telling) line motion towards Lance.
Is it actually potential that some necessary individuals within the 49ers’ constructing wished Jones, however had been persuaded by those that wished Lance that followers had been a lot towards Jones that it might be onerous for him to beat all of the vitriol? I consider there’s greater than meets the attention to that choice, as an excessive amount of fact was precisely reported for this to be some kind of smoke display.
Draft protection made me yearn for the times earlier than social media, when analysts would have sturdy takes and sometimes criticize gamers and picks. I can keep in mind Mel Kiper Jr. almost getting right into a fistfight on the air over the Colts passing on Trent Dilfer.
Now if a choose or a participant will get criticized, the clip of the analyst calling it a nasty choose will likely be retweeted each time the participant throws a landing move. So the analysts play it protected. It’s not value being fallacious and risking their credibility, in order that they err on the facet of complimenting every choose, which makes for a really boring viewing expertise. You know what’s not boring? Picking winners! Let’s discover a number of …
Vikings (+300) to win NFC North
I might hope my family and friends contemplate me particular person. But with regards to betting, I proudly consider myself as a vicious predator. When I hear breaking information — a commerce, an damage — my first intuition is all the time: How can I wager and revenue off this info?
When Russell Westbrook obtained traded to the Wizards, I risked damage to my thumbs logging in so quick to all my accounts to fireside on the Over 28.5 season wins (it closed at 33.5 a number of weeks later). So when information unfold final week Aaron Rodgers was sad and wished out of Green Bay, my wheels instantly started turning. The solely drawback was that we don’t know the place he would go or whether or not he would go. The future costs on his supposedly most well-liked locations shortly obtained adjusted to account for a possible commerce.
Some books took down their division odds — however some didn’t. And that’s how I believe we are able to revenue from this information. I’ve written that I anticipate the Vikings to bounce again to the shape they confirmed in successful 10 or extra video games and a playoff contest in two of the three years earlier than final season, and if Rodgers had been to depart Green Bay, they instantly would grow to be the heavy division favourite.
Maybe he’ll play in Las Vegas or Denver. Maybe he’ll host “Jeopardy!” or “Supermarket Sweep” and received’t play in any respect. By betting the Vikings, you don’t must anticipate the place Rodgers will finish as much as extract worth. Even if he had been to remain in Green Bay, maybe his dismay would negatively have an effect on the Packers. Or perhaps, after two journeys to the NFC title sport, the Packers’ window has slammed shut and the Vikings will win this division anyway. This will likely be an enchanting sport of rooster, and I’m certain the NFL wish to know the way it will likely be resolved earlier than releasing its tv schedule shortly. The Vikings at plus cash with the uncertainty in Green Bay is a chance to leap on.
Texans Under 5 wins
Houston choosing quarterback Davis Mills at No. 67 was alarming on many ranges. First, that was their first choose of the draft. They are additionally a staff with gaping holes up and down the roster, and the one place at which they’re elite is quarterback … assuming Deshaun Watson is obtainable. This resolution confirms the Texans should assume what I had already believed — that it’s extraordinarily unlikely Watson will begin 17 video games subsequent season.
Most retailers have tiptoed round Watson’s authorized issues. But a part of betting is handicapping and assessing the unknown, and because of the quantity of accusations in addition to the precedent the league has set in dealing with off-field conduct, Watson is a big underdog to flee this case unscathed.
Oh, and the Texans received simply 4 video games final yr, with Watson placing up 36 complete touchdowns towards seven interceptions and finishing greater than 70 p.c of his passes. In the AFC South, the Jaguars will possible be a lot improved, and the Titans and Colts made the playoffs final yr. The Texans are a multitude from high to backside and may battle to win greater than two or three video games. They will likely be competing with the Lions for the primary choose within the draft. Go Under.
Dolphins to make the playoffs (+120)
A very good protection and a very good younger coach spotlight a staff that has made incremental enhancements for the reason that center of the 2019 season. Though the quarterback play was actually poor final yr, Tua Tagovailoa can have higher weapons and maybe will likely be more healthy than final season, only a yr eliminated from a serious hip damage. Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller will add some juice to an offense that desperately wants some juicing, and Tagovailoa’s defenders will now not have the excuse that he has no person to throw to.
Also, although Rodgers hasn’t been linked to the Dolphins, I believe they’re a possible sleeper staff for him. They test loads of bins — main market, nice climate, good roster and no state revenue tax. They even have a plethora of draft fairness and will even provide Tagovailoa if Green Bay covets him. Miami is headed in the fitting course and can have a shot to win a playoff sport for the primary time since December 2000.
William Hill (to not be confused with the sportsbook of the identical title) is a contributor to VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly.