When certain teams come to town, bet against these star pitchers

Last week, I started a two-part series highlighting how certain beginning pitchers in Major League Baseball fare against particular opponents. I showcased the perfect starting-pitcher developments for bettors to acknowledge in 2021. This week I’ll share the worst developments amongst pitcher-opponent matchups lately, as decided by the return on funding.

This week’s data is a bit more startling as a result of a number of prime pitchers are represented on this “worst” listing. These pitchers are sometimes so overpriced that even when they pitch properly, they will nonetheless lose, and bettors really feel the ache. Betting against elite starters equivalent to Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole can show extremely worthwhile. The greatest bettors know when to pull the set off on apparent worth. Baseball betting is about way over simply beginning pitchers these days. Bullpens are of just about equal significance, and lots of video games are determined after the starters have left. Thus, overpaying for certain starters is a typical mistake.

Look carefully on the key stats every pitcher has posted. Some present horrible numbers, equivalent to Nick Pivetta’s 10.34 ERA against Washington. Others appear to be merely a results of unhealthy luck — the stats are good, however the won-lost document doesn’t match.

Kyle Hendricks (Cubs)

Last six begins vs. White Sox

Team document: 1-5, -10 models, ROI -166.7%

Individual document: 1-4, 33 innings

Key stats: ERA 3.55, WHIP 1.212, Ok’s/9 8.73

Team run help: 2.5 rpg

Schedule spots: Aug. 6-8, Aug. 27-29

Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw
Getty Images

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Last six begins vs. Marlins

Team document: 2-4, -9.65 models, ROI -160.8%

Individual document: 1-4, 35 innings

Key stats: ERA 2.83, WHIP 1, Ok’s/9 13.11

Team run help: 5.2 rpg

Schedule spots: July 5-8

Aaron Nola (Phillies)

Last 5 begins vs. Marlins

Team document: 1-4, -7.55 models, ROI -151.0%

Individual document: 1-3, 34 innings

Key stats: ERA 2.38, WHIP 0.882, Ok’s/9 10.06

Team run help: 3.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 18-20, May 24-27, June 29-July 1, July 16-18, Sept. 3-5, Oct. 1-3

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

Last 5 begins vs. Giants

Team document: 2-3, -6.95 models, ROI -139.0%

Individual document: 2-3, 28¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 2.86, WHIP 1.2, Ok’s/9 8.26

Team run help: 5 rpg

Schedule spots: May 21-23, May 27-30, June 28-29, July 19-22, July 27-29, Sept. 3-5

Alex Wood (Giants)

Last 5 begins vs. Phillies

Team document: 1-4, -6.85 models, ROI -137.0%

Individual document: 1-2, 28¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.13, WHIP 1.518, Ok’s/9 7.31

Team run help: 3.6 rpg

Schedule spots: July 18-20

Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks
AP

Kyle Hendricks (Cubs)

Last 5 begins vs. Reds

Team document: 0-5, -6.75 models, ROI -135.0%

Individual document: 0-3, 25 innings

Key stats: ERA 8.28, WHIP 1.76, Ok’s/9 9

Team run help: 4.2 rpg

Schedule spots: May 28-30, July 2-4, July 26-29, Aug. 16-18, Sept. 6-8

Jose Berrios (Twins)

Last 5 begins vs. Athletics

Team document: 0-5, -6.15 models, ROI -123.0%

Individual document: 0-3, 26¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.1, WHIP 1.405, Ok’s/9 7.86

Team run help: 2.8 rpg

Schedule spots: May 14-16

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals)

Last 5 begins vs. Giants

Team document: 1-4, -6.15 models, ROI -123.0%

Individual document: 0-4, 22¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 5.24, WHIP 1.432, Ok’s/9 11.68

Team run help: 3.8 rpg

Schedule spots: June 10-12, July Sep 11

J.A. Happ (Twins)

Last 5 begins vs. Blue Jays

Team document: 1-4, -6.1 models, ROI -122.0%

Individual document: 1-3, 29 innings

Key stats: ERA 4.04, WHIP 0.931, Ok’s/9 8.38

Team run help: 2.6 rpg

Schedule spots: Sept. 17-19, Sept. 23-25

Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole
Getty Images

Gerrit Cole (Yankees)

Last 5 begins vs. Rays

Team document: 1-4, -6.05 models, ROI -121.0%

Individual document: 1-2, 29¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 3.68, WHIP 1.193, Ok’s/9 13.5

Team run help: 3.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 12 (tonight!), May 31-June 2, July 27-29, Oct. 1-3

Jose Berrios (Twins)

Last 5 begins vs. Indians

Team document: 0-5, -6 models, ROI -120.0%

Individual document: 0-1, 27¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.28, WHIP 1.39, Ok’s/9 8.23

Team run help: 2.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 21-23, June 24-27, Aug. 16-18, Sept. 6-9, Sept. 14-15.

Madison Bumgarner (Diamondbacks)

Last 5 begins vs. Marlins

Madison Bumgarner
Madison Bumgarner
Getty Images

Team document: 1-4, -5.95 models, ROI -119.0%

Individual document: 1-2, 29¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.6, WHIP 1.193, Ok’s/9 7.36

Team run help: 4 rpg

Kenta Maeda (Twins)

Last 5 begins vs. Angels

Team document: 1-4, -5.9 models, ROI -118.0%

Individual document: 1-3, 25¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.62, WHIP 1.105, Ok’s/9 11.01

Team run help: 3.8 rpg

Schedule spots: May 20, July 22-25

Kyle Hendricks (Cubs)

Last 10 begins vs. Pirates

Team document: 2-8, -11.55 models, ROI -115.5%

Individual document: 2-6, 58¹/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.097, Ok’s/9 5.4

Team run help: 3.4 rpg

Schedule spots: May 25-27, Sept. 2-4, Sept. 28-30

Andrew Heaney (Angels)

Last 5 begins vs. Athletics

Team document: 0-5, -5.7 models, ROI -114.0%

Individual document: 0-2, 28²/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 4.71, WHIP 1.012, Ok’s/9 10.99

Team run help: 3.2 rpg

Schedule spots: May 21-23, May 27-30, June 14-16, July 19-20, July 29-Aug. 1, Sept. 17-19

Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta
Getty Images

Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)

Last 9 begins vs. Nationals

Team document: 0-9, -10.2 models, ROI -113.3%

Individual document: 0-7, 35²/₃ innings

Key stats: ERA 10.34, WHIP 2.215, Ok’s/9 8.07

Team run help: 3.1 rpg

Schedule spots: Oct. 1-3

Max Scherzer (Nationals)

Last 5 begins vs. Braves

Team document: 1-4, -5.65 models, ROI -113.0%

Individual document: 1-3, 27 1/3 innings

Key stats: ERA 5.6, WHIP 1.427, Ok’s/9 12.18

Team run help: 3.8 rpg

Schedule spots: July 31-June 3, Aug. 6-8, Aug. 13-15, Sept. 7-9

Max Scherzer (Nationals)

Last 5 begins vs. Rockies

Team document: 2-3, -5.65 models, ROI -113.0%

Individual document: 1-1, 28 innings

Key stats: ERA 5.14, WHIP 1.321, Ok’s/9 12.54

Team run help: 4.8 rpg

Schedule spots: Sept. 17-19, Sept. 27-29

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.